In the post below this one, I commented that I was somewhat surprised Bobby Borchering wasn't in the top 20 prospects for the Midwest League. One comment underneath questioned my opinion, and even though I replied there, I figured it was worth spending a few minutes discussing why I think Bobby Borchering is a strong prospect.
Let's break it down quickly by some categories:
Power - He's got plenty of it from both sides of the plate...no real need to debate this any more.
Average - Started slow, but hit .286 in the second half to finish at .270 overall for the season. Is that outstanding? No. It is pretty good for a 19-year-old who was drafted out of high school and is playing his first full season of baseball? Yes. We get so caught up in guys hitting .300 that we forget what a huge adjustment it is to go from a high school season to professional baseball. Let's also not forget that Justin Upton hit .263 when he was in South Bend and then hit .319 in Visalia/Mobile the next year.
Speed - Okay, so Bobby is not going to win any speed contests, nor is he going to steal bases. Who cares? There are plenty of guys who don't run that well but can still hit the ball a ton. Would you rather have a guy hit 30 homers or steal 30 bases? I'll take the homers.
Defense - I hate arguing about defense because it's difficult to do. I think Bobby can stick at third base, and I think the only way he gets better is by playing there every day instead of splitting time with Matt Davidson at the hot corner. How this works in the future if they are on the same team is left up to someone a lot smarter than me. He's not the best defensive third baseman I've ever seen, but he can play the position. I want to scream every time a scout or talent evaluator writes that a guy can't stick at one position. Are we seriously deciding at the age of 19 that he can't play third base? If you trusted all the "experts", then there would never be anyone who makes it to the majors as an infielder because no one is "good enough" to stay there forever. And if they decide they have a better third base option, then teach him how to play first. It's not that big of a deal.
X Factor - I don't know what an X factor is. The commenter in the post below said that Bobby lacked the X factor. Here's what I know...Bobby grew more both on and off the field than any other player on the Silver Hawks this year. He went from putting all the pressure in the world on himself to finally relaxing and enjoying the game -- and when that happened, his stats got better. Again, he's 19. Let's give him a few years to develop before we start saying he lacks the "X Factor", whatever that might be.
Summary: I know this may sound like I'm heaping praise on Bobby Borchering, and there's some truth to that. He is a good player, but still has a lot of work to do in order to reach his full potential. But in the five years that I've been in the Midwest League, he's among the most naturally talented players I've seen. I think he just scratched the surface of his abilities this year and I expect him to continue to get better as the years go by.
Remember, Baseball America wasn't ranking the best players in the league this year. If they were, then no, Borchering is not in the top 20. What they are ranking is the top 20 prospects -- meaning who they think will have the best futures. I've been wrong before, but I think Borchering will ultimately turn out to be one of the 20 best "alumni" from the 2010 Midwest League season.
Also remember, the ability to get on base is much more important to scoring runs than batting average alone. Aaron Hicks batted .279, but his otherworldly plate discipline, translating to a .401 on-base clip, is part of what made him #5.
ReplyDelete128 k's makes me nervous. I take the rankings with a grain of salt. I thought Chris Owings was awesome, he was hitting great despite having no patience at the plate. On the flip side, when Jarrod Parker (Tommy John Surgery) and AJ Pollock (Screw in his elbow) are listed as top prospects, that is a big concern of mine.
ReplyDeleteWhile it is often great to speculate, At this point Borchering made it through 140 games. Hopefully the Dbacks will work on his weaknesses and he can be a better player for it next year.
Thanks for posting my comment. I wasn't sure you would since it wasn't all positive.
ReplyDeleteThe "X Factor" is subjective but in simplest terms it is those players that appear to have been born to play baseball. They have that little extra, that "feel" for the game. They rarely make mental mistakes and always seem to be in the right place at the right time. They know when to run and not to run, to throw and not throw, etc. They play hard, have a great attitude and enjoy the game. Two examples that quickly come to mind are Derek Jeter and Ichiro.
One final thought on prospects. If we are being honest, sadly, it comes down to money. The majority of prospects on the list are those picked in the first few rounds and paid 6 or 7 figure bonuses. Obviously, teams are going to give more time to develop highly paid players to try to get their "money's worth". The most talented minor leaguers do not always make it. History shows that the majority of MLB players were drafted in the first few rounds. There are exceptions but they are rare. And don't argue that the early rounders are always the best because that is not true. Except for the superstars, there is not a big difference in playing ability between those drafted in the third round and those in the 15th or 20th. Because of these facts (and not because of talent, attitude, or ability), I agree that Borchering has a much higher chance to make it to the show and is a top prospect.
Anonymous, did we meet in Pittsburgh? lol.
ReplyDeleteI actually heard the same thing recently that some prospects are ranked higher due to salary/bonus. I can agree with getting their "money's worth" is probably a factor in that.
I agree. It is clear that the Dbacks cater to the players paid the top dollar. Management tells the individual managers who to play and even where to bat them in the lineup. The top dollar players are the first to get instruction, the first to get help from the trainers, the first invited to instructional leagues, etc. For example, Paul Goldschmidt had a monster season and led Visalia in almost every offensive category. But he was drafted in the 8th round and only received around 100K. Thus, he is not one of their top prospects and he was not invited to the Arizona Fall League. Instead they invited first-rounder, Pollock, who has yet to prove himself and did not play this entire year due to injury.
ReplyDeleteHi Owen
ReplyDeleteYogi said you can see alot just by watching, I wondered what you were doing spending those endless hours all over the Midwest hanging out with the Silverhawks I found it interesting that you were able to offer a ray of hope for Borchering.I'm guessing he didn't pick himself in the first round of last years
draft Maybe someone from the DBacks thought he might have the potential to be a future prospect too, even if he is only a teenager now I'm sorry that the contributor is already nervous about his K's Does anybody remember Chipper J or the X Factors D Jeters first pro year stats check it out Most naturals are guys who have some talent and find a way to work harder than anybody else, It would be alot easier if the organization could just develop the players, Actually its the player who has to take it upon himself to reach his potential. I dont know about the X Factor guys but maybe it is something like what they used to refer to as intangibles or a players makeup I dont believe a sign on bonus is the biggest factor of the equation ie Counsel or a Eckstein alot of success No ? and drafted late There was a guy from your team of the past # 14 who couldn't field,throw,run or hit for power signed only because his uncle was a bird dog scout, He has more records listed and more memobilia in that brick building in Cooperstown than anyone else. You just never know. Too bad it wasn't so easy for Ted Williams to "develop" all those Senators like Brinkman into 400 hitters. At least now there is more availability to an over abundance of experts to utilize all the advanced mediums to inform everyone what teenagers will make it and those who never will have a chance. When a young player named Mickey Mantle felt so discouraged and homesick that his father paid him a visit to tell him he never raised a son to be a quitter but he would take him home if thats what he wanted.....Thats a time where they needed more experts to help with Micks decision I think you are right Owen that SB team has alot of talented players maybe they could just play some more ball and things may work out Or how about this club promotion a exhibition game between the teenage players and the baseball experts ?
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteI appreciate the fact that Owen is the eyes of the Hawks and respect his insight and views but that does not mean we are going to agree on what we see on the field. You seem a bit sensitive about "baseball experts", in fact, the discussion of determining whether or not a teen will be a superstar sounds vaguely familiar.
My point was player improvement. I don't believe the onus should be only on the player but also the organization. If the organization can pin point a weakness, they should work with the player on the weakness. Of course it is up to the player to work on that weakness.
Obviously if a team or organization wants to improve, it will work to develop it's players. I view 128 k's as a place for improvement, don't you? I wasn't even negative about Borchering, I stated by working on it, he can be a better player for it.
I'd hope the organization shares my view on this.
I think Anonymous made some excellent points. I predict Bobby Borchering will be in the Majors by 2013. Take it to the bank.
ReplyDeleteI am dreaming, but I think the Cubs should make the Diamondbacks an offer they can't refuse for Borchering. Aramis Ramirez has only one year left on his contract. Josh Vitters, their top 3rd base prospect, is treading water in the minors and hit .223 in AA ball in 2010. With Derrek Lee gone the Cubs have no one at first base. It seems the Diamondbacks are well stocked at the corner positions, and conceivably would be willing to part with Borchering if the offer were enticing enough. It would fill a huge gap if the Cubs could acquire a switch-hitting prospect with power who can play both corner positions. I am hoping Jim Hendry reads this blog. Go get him, Jim.
ReplyDeleteAfter some thought and consideration, I have to agree with Dave K who maintains that the D-Backs organization should address their players weaknesses. For example, STRIKEOUTS? Hitters should be instructed how to limit strikeouts. As mentioned Borchering struck out 128 times. In addition Davidson had 134 strikeouts and the Hawks leadoff hitter? Broxton struck out 172 times. WOW.
ReplyDeleteWhile at the same time I'm confident that these players walk to K ratio will improve as they move from a "pitchers league" to a "hitters league". Not to take the onus off the hitters, but with all due respect to the umpires, more experience will help them too. Just like the players they all have to start somewhere.
To be more specific I couldn't help but notice that on multiple occasions the pitchers were not held reponsible for pitching the ball within the strike zone. By this I mean they were often not limited to a 17 inch width and 216 square inch homeplate to earn a called strike. This often manifested itself in the form of an exaggerated adjustment by the batter. Particulary those who subconsciously recalled Williams first rule of hitting, "Get a good pitch to hit, kid." But there isn't enough time to think while in the box. So when a non strike is called a strike - BRAIN CRAMP.
Too many called strikes from about as high as the 2nd rib or sternal manubrium and as low as 3-4 inches below the patellar tendon insertion. I would be curious to see one of those pitch trackers while watching a Midwest League game on tv.
I think players like Goldschmidt and Franklin did a good job of countering. Knowing that the young pitchers were taught to get ahead in the count, they knew they could be aggressive and attack the first pitch fast ball and hit it over the fence. How many pitchers did you see pitching backwards at this level? Not many. In pitcher or neutral counts I would suggest the batter set up for a middle speed pitch like a slider, spinner, or change up. Then they could still ramp it up with quick hands like Owings to hit the fast ball or stay back by eccentrically contracting their antagonistic gluteus medius and minimus, piriformis, right external oblique, left internal oblique, soleus and tibialis muscles while staying closed with the hands back. Then they could wait longer and perhaps let the pitch out over the plate get deep, stay inside the ball, square up and just go with it up the middle or opposite field. Every at bat counts. Whoever takes control of the at bat, pitcher or hitter, will be successful. Hitters should not waste any at bats.
But strike outs are a contagious desease. The hitters, the organization, and the players should be on a mission to eradicate them. From Reynolds at the very top to the Missoula Rookie. Let's have a plan and if in doubt be smart.
I'm not an "expert", but would be willing to be hired by commission strictly based on outcomes.
I've enjoyed this chat.
I have watched videos on the Internet of Bobby Borchering hitting, and I think he has well-developed vastus intermedius, rectus femoris, vastus lateralis, and vastus medialis muscles. Also, as opposed to linear hitting, I think he has a basic understanding of rotational hitting like Ted Williams. He is learning to power the swing with the entire body -- and in particular the large muscles of the core -- rather than just the arms, wrists, and hands. This may take a few more years to completely develop (he turns 20 later this month), but I think he's on the right track. I continue to project him as a 30+ home run, 100+ RBI guy. He may not steal much, and he may have a few more strikeouts than ideal, but he has enormous potential.
ReplyDeleteAnd for those of us who have no idea what the proper names are, a quick google search tells us that the above commenter is basically saying Borchering has strong legs.
ReplyDeleteActually it sounds like the contributor was merely refering to his hip flexors and quad extensors. I would assume that Bobby's extensor muscle groups are developed to equate to a one:one or 60:80 quad/ham ratio. Who cares?
ReplyDeleteHe seems like a humble, laid back, and somewhat, mysterious kid. I heard he likes to swing an axe and has an interest in outdoor wilderness competitions. In addition he has been know to work out at a dojo where he trains in Akido like the all time home run king Sadadraro Oh and more recently Ichiro for balance, centering and focus. I read in an article about him practicing Samurai with sticks in place of swords to improve his accuracy and hand speed (I guess hes trying to get an edge.)if he wore smeared eyeblack he could be a warrior like one Bryce Harper.
Also besides this seemingly whack program he works out with Joey Votto at IMG in Florida. We'll just have to see if all this will help make him a better ball player but I will give him credit for his drive, work ethic, and creativity? One way or the other he sure will be an interesting follow even if the Dbacks decide to trade him like many have suggested.
I believe Borchering is neither strictly a limear{ie Cobb Hirniak Lau or rotational ie Ruth. Thome Bobby is more combined ie Aaron Ventura Greenwell Sr}especialy from the left side outside he will drift forward with 1 arm follow thru inside more rotational no ?
ReplyDeleteI wasn't planning on posting anymore on this topic, but after reading the last post, I decided to try to clarify what I was trying so say about Bobby Borchering's swing. I don't think we should get into the differences between linear and rotational swings because in reading the various websites that deal with this it's hard to find a consensus. So I will use my own definition based on my personal situation. Some folks may agree with my definition; others will not.
ReplyDeleteI have suffered back pain for nearly 20 years. Last November the pain and spasms became so overwhelming I could not get out of the golf cart. I was petrified, and I gave up golf for good. About three months ago I began a physical therapy program and was fortunate to be assigned a great therapist. I explained to him what happened, and that my golf swing was basically just arms, wrists, and hands because I was trying to protect my back during the swing. So we set about a program to do several things, one being to increase the strength of the core muscles. Ideally this will result in being able to return to golf without suffering the immobility and pain of intense muscle spasms. Hopefully I will be able to coil a little more and bring the whole body through the swing rather than just using my arms, wrists, and hands. In other words, don't just "slap" at the golf ball.
I didn't mean to say that Borchering was an accomplished rotational hitter. I agree he currently has elements of both linear and rotational hitting. But I do believe most successful major league power hitters are rotational hitters. They use their core muscles for a lot of their power. And I think Borchering will develop into that kind of hitter. He's not there yet, but I think it will come. He has the God-given natural ability to do it.
Another poster said he read that Borchering "likes to swing an axe and has an interest in outdoor wilderness competitions." This brought to mind Abraham Lincoln who also enjoyed this. Lincoln was good at this not only because he had strong arms but also a strong core. After Lincoln's assassination an autopsy was done. The doctors who did the autopsy were amazed at the fine condition of his body. For example, Army Assistant Surgeon Dr. Edward Curtis wrote, "I was simply astonished at the showing of the nude remains, where well-rounded muscles built upon strong bones told the powerful athlete. Now did I understand the deeds of prowess recorded of the President's early days."
I think President Lincoln was successful in activities like wilderness competitions and wrestling because he had a strong core (although it didn't really show in his photographs which depict a tall, thin individual). A strong core will help a batter become a good rotational hitter, and that's where I think Bobby Borchering is headed. Just my opinion.